Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike VasilPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Perdomo singled to left, Thomas scored.4–1
- 7Herrera hit sacrifice fly to center, Tawa scored, Thomas to third.3–1
- 7Thomas singled to right, Grichuk scored, Tawa to third.2–1
- 2Robert Jr. homered to left (357 feet).1–1
- 1Marte homered to right center (401 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML ARI -120 / CHW +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 64.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +1 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jordan Leasure (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +101 Elo | ARI 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 7th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 16–2226th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 12th of 301521 | Elo rating | 141129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–37 | 46–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–25 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 46–32 |
| Overs–unders | 41–37 | 38–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 5–2 CHW in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.