Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Willi CastroBatting1-4
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fortes singled to right, J. Sánchez scored, Lopez to third.0–2
- 2Stowers homered to right (369 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML MIN -135 / MIA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 3.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +2 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +18 Elo | MIN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 26th of 3018–27 | Road vs home | 17–2427th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 19th of 301493 | Elo rating | 146125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–38 | 45–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 25–22 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 44–25 |
| Overs–unders | 40–44 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–4 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.