Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-2, 3 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suárez singled to left, Perdomo scored.6–4
- 8Herrera scored on Faucher wild pitch, Perdomo to third on wild pitch by Faucher.6–3
- 8Herrera scored on Faucher wild pitch, Perdomo to third on wild pitch by Faucher.6–3
- 8Stowers doubled to center, Ramírez scored, Sanoja scored and Lopez scored.6–2
- 8Lopez singled to left, Hicks scored and Myers scored, Lopez to second, Sanoja to third.3–2
- 3Marte homered to right center (410 feet).1–2
- 2McCarthy tripled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored.1–1
- 1Wagaman reached on infield single to third, Ramírez scored on error, Wagaman safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Suárez.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 64%
- ML MIA +160 / ARI -220
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.7%, market 64.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -179
- MIA +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −5 | MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +68 Elo | ARI 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 64.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 16th of 3019–21 | Road vs home | 20–2021st of 30 |
| 4th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 26th of 301459 | Elo rating | 151712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–37 | 42–40 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–12 | 23–28 |
| Underdog | 43–25 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 41–40 | 44–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 8–9 ARI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.