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Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, MLB forecast

FinalDoubleheader - Game 1 - Makeup from July 1

Away

Brewers

48-37

7–2

at

Home

Mets

48-38

MIL 48%NYM 52%

You didn't pick this one.

Citi Field · MLB.TV, FanDuel SN WI, SNY

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.

NYM75%50%75%MILStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Brewers
  • Isaac CollinsBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mets
  • Pete AlonsoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
  • Clay HolmesPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Collins homered to left center (390 feet).7–2
  • 6Ortiz homered to left (378 feet), Turang scored, Collins scored and Bauers scored.6–2
  • 6Turang doubled to left, Yelich scored.2–2
  • 4Alonso singled to center, Soto scored.1–2
  • 3Baty hit sacrifice fly to center, McNeil scored.1–1
  • 1Frelick homered to right (378 feet).1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Mets 52%

Toss-upMiss
MIL 48%NYM 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
NYM 52%
ML MIL +100 / NYM -120
Pre-line forecast
NYM 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYM 51%
Ratings vs. market
−1.5 pts
NYM: Elo 50.6%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
NYM -109
MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILNYMWhy
Team rating15391524Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+5+7MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYM +4 EloNYM 50.6%
Market-implied ratingsNYM 52.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYM 52.0%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYM 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatNYM
8th of 304.7Runs scored4.314th of 30
13th of 304.1Runs allowed3.98th of 30
6th of 30+0.7Margin+0.59th of 30
2nd of 308–2Last 103–724th of 30
8th of 3020–20Road vs home29–121st of 30
24th of 301496Opponent Elo149621st of 30
4th of 301539Elo rating152410th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BrewersMets
14501500155016001650league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILNYM
Run line44–4040–45
Last 108–24–6
Favorite20–2324–35
Underdog24–1716–10
Overs–unders34–5036–49
Overs–unders, last 106–47–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 12–4 NYM in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.