Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Orlando ArciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- German MarquezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 11Farmer singled to center, Doyle scored.4–3
- 10Ortiz scored on Vodnik wild pitch, Frelick to second on wild pitch by Vodnik.3–3
- 10Ortiz scored on Vodnik wild pitch, Frelick to second on wild pitch by Vodnik.3–3
- 10Estrada singled to right, Hilliard scored.3–2
- 9Arcia homered to left center (386 feet).2–2
- 8Doyle doubled to center, McMahon scored.1–2
- 6Yelich homered to left (363 feet).0–2
- 6Frelick homered to right center (395 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 67%
- ML COL +195 / MIL -235
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 72.7%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -207
- COL +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 5.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1389 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −7 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +170 Elo | MIL 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 69.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 3010–33 | Road vs home | 27–168th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 30th of 301389 | Elo rating | 15404th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–44 | 44–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 20–22 |
| Underdog | 37–41 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 35–48 | 34–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 9–9 MIL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.