Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ohtani homered to center (419 feet).3–1
- 6Freeman singled to right, Betts scored, Smith to second.2–1
- 3Betts reached on infield single to first, Rojas scored, Ohtani to third.1–1
- 2Doyle homered to left (394 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML LAD -290 / COL +235
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 69.8%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -249
- COL +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 7.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −3 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +146 Elo | LAD 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 68.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.7 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 5th of 3018–17 | Road vs home | 8–3130th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301562 | Elo rating | 139330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–44 | 38–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 28–39 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 36–39 |
| Overs–unders | 49–32 | 34–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 25–6 COL in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 31.