Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Michael ConfortoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- German MarquezPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9T. Hernández doubled to left, Muncy scored.9–7
- 8Beck doubled to left, Goodman scored and Freeman scored.8–7
- 8Freeman doubled to right, Ritter scored.8–5
- 7Estrada singled to left, Freeman scored, Goodman to second.8–4
- 6Ohtani homered to left (373 feet), Edman scored.8–3
- 5Estrada hit sacrifice fly to center, Beck scored.6–3
- 4Betts doubled to left, Edman scored.6–2
- 4Conforto homered to right (420 feet), Muncy scored and Pages scored.5–2
- 4Pages grounded into fielder's choice to first, Smith scored, Muncy third.2–2
- 4T. Hernández grounded out to second, Freeman scored, Muncy to second, Smith to third.1–2
- 3Toglia doubled to left, Beck scored.0–2
- 1Toglia doubled to right, Goodman scored, Toglia to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 70%
- ML LAD -265 / COL +215
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 69.3%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -229
- COL +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.7 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −4 | LAD: Jack Dreyer: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +141 Elo | LAD 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 8–2930th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301560 | Elo rating | 139530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–43 | 37–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–38 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 35–38 |
| Overs–unders | 48–31 | 33–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 23–6 COL in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 29.