Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting2-4
- Chase DollanderPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Conforto homered to right (431 feet).8–1
- 7Muncy homered to right center (418 feet), Conforto scored, Ohtani scored and Freeman scored.7–1
- 6Goodman singled to center, Freeman scored on throwing error by center fielder Pages, Goodman to second.3–1
- 6Pages singled to right, Muncy scored, T. Hernández to third.3–0
- 6Muncy reached on infield single to first, Rushing scored and Ohtani scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML LAD -310 / COL +250
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 70.3%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -265
- COL +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +9 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +150 Elo | LAD 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 75.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 74.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.627th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 8–3030th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301561 | Elo rating | 139430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–44 | 38–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 27–39 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 36–38 |
| Overs–unders | 49–31 | 34–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 24–6 COL in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 30.