Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting1-3
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 5Turang doubled to center, Contreras scored.0–5
- 4Ortiz homered to left center (406 feet), Durbin scored.0–4
- 1Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to center, Yelich scored, Contreras to third.0–2
- 1Turang reached on infield single to second, Chourio scored, Contreras to second, Yelich to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 72%
- ML COL +240 / MIL -300
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 71.6%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- MIL -255
- COL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 5.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1390 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +160 Elo | MIL 71.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 68.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 3010–32 | Road vs home | 26–168th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 30th of 301390 | Elo rating | 15394th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–43 | 43–39 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 19–22 |
| Underdog | 37–40 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 35–47 | 34–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 9–8 MIL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.