Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Braxton FulfordBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yelich doubled to left, Chourio scored and Durbin scored.6–10
- 8Chourio grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Turang scored, Frelick out at second, Durbin to third.6–8
- 8Fulford doubled to center, Farmer scored and McMahon scored.6–7
- 6Fulford doubled to left, McMahon scored.4–7
- 5Contreras scored on a balk.3–7
- 5Contreras scored on a balk.3–7
- 5Contreras scored on a balk.3–7
- 5Estrada singled to left, Ritter scored and Beck scored.3–6
- 5Ritter grounded into fielder's choice to second, Doyle scored, Fulford out at second.1–6
- 4Chourio homered to right (363 feet), Turang scored and Frelick scored.0–6
- 4Frelick singled to right, Hoskins scored, Turang to third.0–3
- 4Turang singled to right, Collins scored and Contreras scored, Hoskins to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 66%
- ML COL +180 / MIL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 73.5%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -191
- COL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 5.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +6 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +178 Elo | MIL 73.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 68.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3010–31 | Road vs home | 25–168th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 30th of 301392 | Elo rating | 15384th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–42 | 42–39 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 18–22 |
| Underdog | 37–39 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 34–47 | 33–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 9–7 MIL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.