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Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, MLB forecast

FinalSNY, FanDuel SN WI, MLB.TV

Away

Brewers

48-39

2–3

at

Home

Mets

50-38

MIL 41%NYM 59%

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Citi Field · SNY, FanDuel SN WI, MLB.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.

NYM75%50%75%MILStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Brewers
  • Andruw MonasterioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Jose QuintanaPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Mets
  • Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • David PetersonPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 7Monasterio homered to left (376 feet).2–3
  • 6Alonso doubled to center, Lindor scored, Soto to third.1–3
  • 6Soto singled to right, Marte scored, Lindor to third.1–2
  • 4Durbin reached on infield single to third, Contreras scored, Collins to second.1–1
  • 2Nimmo homered to right (363 feet).0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Mets 59%

LeanHit
MIL 41%NYM 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
NYM 59%
ML MIL +135 / NYM -160
Pre-line forecast
NYM 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYM 49%
Ratings vs. market
−10.1 pts
NYM: Elo 49.1%, market 59.1%
Fair odds
NYM -145
MIL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 3.8 – 4.7 NYM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILNYMWhy
Team rating15391524Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+3−6MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIL +6 EloMIL 50.9%
Market-implied ratingsNYM 55.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYM 54.6%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYM 59.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatNYM
8th of 304.7Runs scored4.315th of 30
13th of 304.1Runs allowed3.96th of 30
6th of 30+0.7Margin+0.49th of 30
6th of 307–3Last 103–724th of 30
7th of 3021–21Road vs home30–131st of 30
23rd of 301496Opponent Elo149819th of 30
4th of 301539Elo rating15249th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BrewersMets
14501500155016001650league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILNYM
Run line45–4141–46
Last 107–34–6
Favorite20–2325–36
Underdog25–1816–10
Overs–unders36–5038–49
Overs–unders, last 106–47–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 13–5 NYM in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.