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Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, MLB forecast

FinalDoubleheader - Game 2

Away

Brewers

48-38

3–7

at

Home

Mets

49-38

MIL 51%NYM 49%

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Citi Field · SNY, FanDuel SN WI, MLB.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.

NYM75%50%75%MILStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Brewers
  • Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Jacob MisiorowskiPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Mets
  • Brandon NimmoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
  • Blade TidwellPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Lindor doubled to right, Jankowski scored.3–7
  • 6Lindor singled to left, Mauricio scored.3–6
  • 6Ortiz grounded out to third, Hoskins scored, Seigler to second.3–5
  • 6Chourio homered to right center (401 feet).2–5
  • 6Yelich homered to left center (387 feet).1–5
  • 2Lindor homered to right center (379 feet).0–5
  • 2Nimmo homered to right (361 feet), Baty scored, Mauricio scored and Senger scored.0–4

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Brewers 51%

Toss-upMiss
MIL 51%NYM 49%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
MIL 51%
ML MIL -115 / NYM -105
Pre-line forecast
MIL 48%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIL 51%
Ratings vs. market
+0.3 pts
MIL: Elo 51.4%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
MIL -104
NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 4.3 – 4.2 NYM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILNYMWhy
Team rating15411521Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+4−3MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Huascar Brazoban: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIL +10 EloMIL 51.4%
Market-implied ratingsNYM 52.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYM 51.9%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIL 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatNYM
8th of 304.8Runs scored4.316th of 30
13th of 304.0Runs allowed3.97th of 30
6th of 30+0.7Margin+0.49th of 30
1st of 308–2Last 103–725th of 30
7th of 3021–20Road vs home29–132nd of 30
23rd of 301496Opponent Elo149721st of 30
4th of 301541Elo rating152110th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BrewersMets
14501500155016001650league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILNYM
Run line45–4040–46
Last 108–24–6
Favorite20–2324–36
Underdog25–1716–10
Overs–unders35–5037–49
Overs–unders, last 106–47–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 13–4 NYM in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.