Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4
- Jack DreyerPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Andrew VaughnBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ruiz singled to right, Ohtani scored, Smith to third.1–9
- 7Yelich homered to left center (386 feet), Chourio scored.0–9
- 5Turang singled to left, Contreras scored and Vaughn scored, Collins to second, Collins safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Conforto.0–7
- 1Monasterio singled to right, Turang scored, Durbin to third.0–5
- 1Durbin safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Betts, Collins scored, Turang safe at third.0–4
- 1Vaughn homered to left center (409 feet), Frelick scored and Contreras scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -145 / MIL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -130
- MIL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 3.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +5 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +13 Elo | LAD 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 4th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 27–179th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 30 |
| 1st of 301557 | Elo rating | 15385th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–51 | 47–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–46 | 20–25 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 27–18 |
| Overs–unders | 52–39 | 37–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–4 MIL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.