Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chourio hit sacrifice fly to left, Frelick scored, Contreras to second.3–1
- 5Hernández homered to left (375 feet).2–1
- 3Chourio homered to left (370 feet), Yelich scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 52%
- ML MIL +100 / MIA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 41.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +7 | MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +62 Elo | MIL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 20–2627th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 146525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–43 | 50–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 10–0 |
| Favorite | 20–25 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 48–25 |
| Overs–unders | 37–52 | 43–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–8 MIA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.