Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting3-4
- Chad PatrickPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez singled to left, Edwards scored and Sanoja scored, Lopez to second.2–4
- 4Collins singled to center, Chourio scored, Hoskins to second.2–2
- 2Hicks doubled to center, Wagaman scored.1–2
- 2Stowers homered to right (406 feet).1–1
- 2Hoskins tripled to right, Chourio scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIL -135 / MIA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +3 | MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +48 Elo | MIL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 19–2627th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 5th of 301539 | Elo rating | 146325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–42 | 49–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 10–0 |
| Favorite | 20–24 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 47–25 |
| Overs–unders | 37–51 | 43–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–7 MIA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.