Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Brooks BaldwinBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Michael ConfortoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Baldwin homered to right center (404 feet), Rojas scored.2–6
- 7Betts homered to left center (410 feet).0–6
- 3Conforto homered to right (360 feet), Freeman scored.0–5
- 3Freeman doubled to left, Betts scored and Ohtani scored.0–3
- 1Freeman doubled to right, Ohtani scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 70%
- ML CHW +215 / LAD -265
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 72.3%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -229
- CHW +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 5.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −1 | CHW: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +167 Elo | LAD 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 71.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.61st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 309–34 | Road vs home | 32–142nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 29th of 301413 | Elo rating | 15651st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–36 | 39–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 30–43 |
| Underdog | 50–35 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 39–47 | 50–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–7 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.