Los Angeles Dodgers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben CaspariusPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pages singled to right, Muncy scored, E. Hernández to third.5–9
- 9E. Hernández singled to center, Edman scored and Freeman scored, Muncy to third.4–9
- 9Muncy singled to right, Kim scored, Freeman to second, Edman to third.2–9
- 7Perez doubled to left, Pasquantino scored.1–9
- 7Pasquantino doubled to right, India scored and Witt Jr. scored.1–8
- 7Freeman homered to center (421 feet).1–6
- 5Pasquantino homered to center (430 feet), India scored and Witt Jr. scored.0–6
- 5India singled to right, Isbel scored.0–3
- 3Garcia doubled to center, India scored and Witt Jr. scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML LAD -155 / KC +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +58 Elo | LAD 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.330th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3020–17 | Road vs home | 19–2324th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 1st of 301564 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–46 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–41 | 10–27 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 29–16 |
| Overs–unders | 49–34 | 32–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–3 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.