Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Danny JansenBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pasquantino singled to left, Garcia scored.5–1
- 8Mangum grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Caminero scored, Aranda out at second.5–0
- 5Aranda reached on infield single to pitcher, Díaz scored on throwing error by pitcher Bubic, Mead to third.4–0
- 4Jansen hit sacrifice fly to left, Aranda scored.3–0
- 2Jansen homered to left (373 feet), Caballero scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 57%
- ML TB +120 / KC -145
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- KC: Elo 51.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- KC -130
- TB +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | +9 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +13 Elo | KC 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 19–1922nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301527 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–37 | 38–40 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–27 | 10–26 |
| Underdog | 24–10 | 28–14 |
| Overs–unders | 33–45 | 32–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–9 KC in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.