Los Angeles Dodgers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Betts singled to center, Ohtani scored.5–4
- 5Ohtani tripled to right, E. Hernández scored.4–4
- 2Witt Jr. homered to center (428 feet), Isbel scored.3–4
- 2Isbel doubled to right, Rave scored.3–2
- 2Muncy homered to center (424 feet), Edman scored.3–1
- 1Perez singled to left, Garcia scored, Pasquantino to second. Pasquantino safe at third, Perez to second on throwing error by left fielder E. Hernández.1–1
- 1Ohtani homered to right center (429 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -150 / KC +125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -135
- KC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −9 | LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +65 Elo | LAD 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–17 | Road vs home | 19–2224th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 1st of 301563 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–45 | 38–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–40 | 10–27 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 28–16 |
| Overs–unders | 49–33 | 32–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 3–3 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.