Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-4
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Caminero homered to left (366 feet).4–0
- 6B. Lowe homered to center (431 feet).3–0
- 4J. Lowe singled to center, Mangum scored.2–0
- 4Mangum tripled to center, Aranda scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML TB -125 / KC +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- TB: Elo 54.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.4 – 5.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −11 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +28 Elo | TB 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 19–2124th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 9th of 301531 | Elo rating | 148822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–37 | 38–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–27 | 10–27 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 28–15 |
| Overs–unders | 33–47 | 32–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 9–9 KC in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.