Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-4
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 2Jansen hit sacrifice bunt to first, Caballero scored, Simpson to third.3–0
- 2J. Lowe scored on Wacha wild pitch, Simpson to second on wild pitch by Wacha, Caballero to third on wild pitch by Wacha.2–0
- 2J. Lowe scored on Wacha wild pitch, Simpson to second on wild pitch by Wacha, Caballero to third on wild pitch by Wacha.2–0
- 2Caballero reached on bunt single to first, Morel scored, J. Lowe to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML TB -125 / KC +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- TB: Elo 53.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- KC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.9 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +4 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +27 Elo | TB 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 1st of 3017–12 | Road vs home | 19–2024th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 9th of 301530 | Elo rating | 149021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–37 | 38–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–27 | 10–27 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 28–14 |
| Overs–unders | 33–46 | 32–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 8–9 KC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.