Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Ohtani homered to right center (408 feet).1–6
- 4Sosa doubled to left, Benintendi scored.1–5
- 3Pages singled to right, Smith scored.0–5
- 1Conforto singled to center, T. Hernández scored and Pages scored.0–4
- 1Pages doubled to left, Muncy scored, T. Hernández to third.0–2
- 1T. Hernández singled to left, Smith scored, Muncy to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 76%
- ML CHW +300 / LAD -385
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 75.8%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -318
- CHW +318 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.0 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +16 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +198 Elo | LAD 75.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 73.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.61st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 30th of 309–32 | Road vs home | 30–143rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301415 | Elo rating | 15631st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–35 | 38–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 29–42 |
| Underdog | 49–34 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 39–45 | 50–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–5 LAD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.