San Francisco Giants at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Christian KossBatting2-3
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Kyle TeelBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sosa singled to right, Teel scored.2–5
- 7Vargas scored on a balk, Teel to third on a balk.2–4
- 7Vargas scored on a balk, Teel to third on a balk.2–4
- 7Teel doubled to right, Slater scored and Meidroth scored, Vargas to third.2–3
- 5Adames walked, Devers scored, Yastrzemski to second, Flores to third.2–1
- 2Bailey doubled to right, Koss scored.1–1
- 1Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to left, Tauchman scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 58%
- ML SF -160 / CHW +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- SF: Elo 61.1%, market 58.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -138
- CHW +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.6 – 3.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −8 | SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +79 Elo | SF 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 58.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 18–2426th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 141229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–48 | 48–35 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–38 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 48–34 |
| Overs–unders | 39–44 | 39–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 5–3 CHW in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.