San Francisco Giants at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting1-4
- Aaron CivalePitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bailey tripled to right, Adames scored and Koss scored.3–1
- 3Flores doubled to left, Bailey scored, Devers to third.1–1
- 1Meidroth scored on error, Vargas safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Adames, Benintendi safe at second on error.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 59%
- ML SF -160 / CHW +135
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- SF: Elo 60.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.2 – 4.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −1 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +74 Elo | SF 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 12th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 17–2326th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 16th of 301508 | Elo rating | 141229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–47 | 47–34 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–37 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 47–33 |
| Overs–unders | 39–42 | 39–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 4–2 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.