Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Austin SlaterBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Freeman singled to right, Ohtani scored, Smith to second.4–5
- 9Betts hit sacrifice fly to left, Edman scored.4–4
- 9Ohtani grounded into fielder's choice to second, Conforto scored, Kim out at second, Edman to third.4–3
- 3Quero singled to right, Benintendi scored.4–2
- 3Slater homered to left center (418 feet), Meidroth scored.3–2
- 2Pages homered to center (415 feet).1–2
- 1Smith homered to left center (407 feet).1–1
- 1Benintendi singled to right, Slater scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 74%
- ML CHW +270 / LAD -340
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 72.0%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -286
- CHW +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 5.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −3 | CHW: Brandon Eisert (no track record yet) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +164 Elo | LAD 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 72.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.61st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 30th of 309–33 | Road vs home | 31–143rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 29th of 301414 | Elo rating | 15651st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–36 | 39–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 30–42 |
| Underdog | 49–35 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 39–46 | 50–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–6 LAD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.