Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Miguel RojasBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caratini hit sacrifice fly to left, Altuve scored.6–4
- 4Rojas homered to center (393 feet), Edman scored.5–4
- 4Diaz homered to center (405 feet).5–2
- 3Walker singled to center, Smith scored.4–2
- 3Smith reached on infield single to third, Short scored on throwing error by third baseman Rojas, Smith to second.3–2
- 3Short doubled to left, Dubón scored and Hummel scored.2–2
- 2Rojas singled to center, Pages scored.0–2
- 1Betts homered to left center (401 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML HOU +125 / LAD -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 52.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -135
- HOU +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.9 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −2 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 1.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +17 Elo | LAD 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.61st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3021–21 | Road vs home | 33–153rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301540 | Elo rating | 15611st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–45 | 40–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–36 | 31–44 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 37–51 | 51–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–3 LAD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.