Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Cam SmithBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Brandon WalterPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Thairo EstradaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Altuve grounded out to shortstop, Meyers scored.6–7
- 7Estrada singled to left, Beck scored.5–7
- 7Beck singled to left, Moniak scored.5–6
- 7Smith tripled to left, Paredes scored and Altuve scored.5–5
- 4Ritter singled to left, Doyle scored and Arcia scored.3–5
- 3Estrada grounded out to pitcher, Farmer scored, Beck to third.3–3
- 2Paredes doubled to center, Hummel scored.3–2
- 1Estrada homered to left (390 feet), Freeman scored.2–2
- 1Walker grounded out to third, Altuve scored, Smith to third.2–0
- 1Smith doubled to right, Meyers scored, Altuve to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 63%
- ML HOU -190 / COL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 68.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -170
- COL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 6.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −11 | HOU: Brandon Walter: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +131 Elo | HOU 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 8th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 8–3430th of 30 |
| 28th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15152nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301536 | Elo rating | 138930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–44 | 42–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–35 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 40–41 |
| Overs–unders | 35–51 | 35–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 9–1 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.