Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Victor CaratiniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goodman homered to left center (443 feet).6–5
- 5Doyle reached on infield single to pitcher, Beck scored.6–4
- 4Freeman doubled to left, Ritter scored.6–3
- 3Estrada hit sacrifice fly to right, Goodman scored.6–2
- 3Caratini homered to right (413 feet), Meyers scored, Altuve scored and Smith scored.6–1
- 3Meyers grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Dubón scored, Paredes out at second.2–1
- 2Walker singled to right, Smith scored.1–1
- 1Goodman homered to center (431 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML HOU -150 / COL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 65.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -135
- COL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 6.1 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1391 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +6 | HOU: Colton Gordon: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +112 Elo | HOU 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 14th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 8–3230th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301535 | Elo rating | 139130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–42 | 40–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–33 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 38–41 |
| Overs–unders | 35–49 | 35–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–1 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.