Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Cam SmithBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Farmer grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Doyle scored, Toglia out at second.5–3
- 6Smith reached on infield single to pitcher, Meyers scored, Altuve to second.5–2
- 6Altuve singled to center, Dubón scored and Hummel scored, Meyers to third.4–2
- 2Moniak homered to right center (420 feet), Estrada scored.2–2
- 2Whitcomb homered to left center (451 feet).2–0
- 1Smith singled to right, Meyers scored, Altuve to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 70%
- ML HOU -265 / COL +215
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 69.4%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -229
- COL +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 6.7 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +2 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +142 Elo | HOU 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 68.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 12th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 8–3330th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15152nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301535 | Elo rating | 139030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–43 | 41–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 39–41 |
| Overs–unders | 35–50 | 35–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–1 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.