Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting3-3, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben CaspariusPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Diaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Walker scored.18–1
- 6Altuve homered to right center (387 feet), Dubón scored and Meyers scored.17–1
- 6Meyers reached on infield single to third, Hummel scored on throwing error by third baseman E. Hernández, Dubón to third.14–1
- 6Caratini homered to right center (392 feet), Altuve scored, Smith scored and Walker scored.13–1
- 6Walker hit by pitch, Meyers scored, Smith to second, Altuve to third.9–1
- 6Smith singled to right, Paredes scored, Altuve to second, Meyers to third.8–1
- 5Hummel singled to right, Caratini scored, Diaz to third.7–1
- 3Walker homered to left (417 feet), Smith scored.6–1
- 3Altuve homered to left center (394 feet), Meyers scored.4–1
- 2Smith homered to left center (395 feet).2–1
- 1Walker singled to right, Altuve scored.2–0
- 1Paredes homered to left (341 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML HOU +150 / LAD -180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -161
- HOU +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −12 | HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Ben Casparius: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +55 Elo | LAD 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.61st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 12th of 3020–21 | Road vs home | 33–142nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 30 |
| 6th of 301535 | Elo rating | 15661st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–45 | 40–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–36 | 31–43 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 36–51 | 50–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–3 LAD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.