Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Dalton RushingBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Altuve homered to left (373 feet).5–1
- 8Diaz homered to left center (415 feet).4–1
- 8Walker homered to right center (379 feet).3–1
- 6Short walked, Diaz scored, Dubón to second, Hummel to third.2–1
- 3Altuve hit sacrifice fly to right, Short scored, Paredes to third.1–1
- 2Rushing doubled to left, Conforto scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML HOU +150 / LAD -180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -161
- HOU +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +10 | HOU: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +61 Elo | LAD 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–21 | Road vs home | 33–165th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 15591st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–45 | 40–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–36 | 31–45 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 38–51 | 52–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–3 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.