Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Miguel RojasBatting2-3
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Chourio singled to left, Frelick scored.2–3
- 9Vaughn singled to center, Collins scored, Durbin to third.2–2
- 7Betts hit sacrifice fly to left, Rojas scored.2–1
- 5Bauers scored on throwing error by catcher Smith.1–1
- 5Bauers scored on throwing error by catcher Smith.1–1
- 5Ohtani walked, Rojas scored, Outman to second, Ruiz to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML LAD -160 / MIL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 49.5%, market 58.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -138
- MIL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.6 – 3.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +3 Elo | MIL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 5th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 29–179th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 1st of 301551 | Elo rating | 15433rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–53 | 49–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–47 | 21–25 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 28–18 |
| Overs–unders | 53–40 | 38–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–6 MIL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.