Washington Nationals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jason AlexanderPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lile doubled to center, Bell scored, Lowe to third.4–7
- 7Trammell grounded out to shortstop, Diaz scored, Short to second, Whitcomb to third.3–7
- 7Wood singled to right, Lile scored, Abrams to third.3–6
- 6Walker singled to left, Trammell scored and Whitcomb scored, Altuve to second.2–6
- 6Altuve singled to center, Dubón scored, Trammell to second, Whitcomb to third.2–4
- 5Hummel singled to center, Walker scored, Smith to third.2–3
- 4Diaz homered to right center (393 feet).2–2
- 3García Jr. homered to right (370 feet), Abrams scored.2–1
- 1Smith doubled to right, Walker scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML WSH +105 / HOU -125
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 63.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −5 | WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Jason Alexander: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +95 Elo | HOU 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3023–31 | Road vs home | 33–2413th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 27th of 301457 | Elo rating | 15218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–51 | 50–57 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–18 | 26–47 |
| Underdog | 53–33 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 56–50 | 46–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–3 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.