Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting2-3
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Buxton hit sacrifice fly to left, Wallner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML WSH +145 / MIN -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -156
- WSH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −14 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +31 Elo | MIN 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 3020–30 | Road vs home | 28–2014th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 27th of 301450 | Elo rating | 149322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–51 | 52–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–18 | 28–32 |
| Underdog | 49–33 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 55–47 | 45–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.