Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-4
- Michael SorokaPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Friedl scored, McLain out at second.5–0
- 9McLain reached on bunt single to third, Espinal scored on throwing error by third baseman House, Friedl safe at third on error.4–0
- 8Trevino hit sacrifice fly to center, Fraley scored, Marte to third.3–0
- 8Marte doubled to left, Hays scored, Fraley to third.2–0
- 4Fraley singled to center, De La Cruz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML CIN -125 / WSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 58.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −22 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 1.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +62 Elo | CIN 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 21–3028th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15018th of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Elo rating | 145227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–48 | 51–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–31 | 2–18 |
| Underdog | 36–17 | 49–32 |
| Overs–unders | 43–59 | 55–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–11 WSH in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.