Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mets- Brett BatyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Fraley doubled to right, Stephenson scored, Fraley to third.5–2
- 6Stephenson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Hays scored, Steer out at second.4–2
- 4Fraley singled to center, Hays scored, Stephenson to second.3–2
- 3McLain singled to left, Marte scored.2–2
- 3Fraley scored on pickoff error by catcher Torrens, Marte picked off third.1–2
- 3Fraley scored on pickoff error by catcher Torrens, Marte picked off third.1–2
- 2Baty homered to right (393 feet).0–2
- 1Vientos singled to left, Nimmo scored, Alonso to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 61%
- ML CIN +145 / NYM -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.4%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -156
- CIN +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +44 Elo | NYM 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 33–152nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 17th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–46 | 45–53 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–29 | 27–42 |
| Underdog | 34–17 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 42–56 | 44–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–6 NYM in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.