New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4
- Brandon WaddellPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Laureano grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Westburg scored, O'Hearn out at second, Henderson to third.3–7
- 6Westburg grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Jackson scored.3–6
- 5Laureano scored on error, Urías safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Baty, Cowser to second.3–5
- 5Cowser singled to right, Henderson scored, Laureano to third.3–4
- 4Baty singled to right, Soto scored, McNeil to third.3–3
- 2Westburg homered to left center (413 feet), Jackson scored.2–3
- 2Jackson doubled to right, Mullins scored.2–1
- 1Alonso hit sacrifice fly to right, Lindor scored.2–0
- 1Soto grounded out to shortstop, Nimmo scored, Lindor to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -125 / BAL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.4 – 5.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +2 | NYM: Brandon Waddell (no track record yet) · BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +11 Elo | NYM 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3020–26 | Road vs home | 20–2324th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 8th of 301526 | Elo rating | 149322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–51 | 42–49 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–40 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders | 42–51 | 41–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–5 BAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.