New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-3
- David PetersonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Laureano hit sacrifice fly to right, O'Hearn scored, Holliday to third.1–3
- 8Henderson homered to right (400 feet), Cowser scored.1–2
- 5Taylor doubled to right, Baty scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML NYM -145 / BAL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -130
- BAL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.0 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +17 Elo | NYM 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3020–25 | Road vs home | 19–2325th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 149122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–50 | 41–49 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–39 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 26–23 |
| Overs–unders | 42–50 | 41–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–4 BAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.