Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting1-4
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Seager homered to center (420 feet).0–6
- 4Duran singled to center, Osuna scored and Heim scored.0–5
- 3Semien homered to left center (399 feet), McKinney scored and Smith scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 58%
- ML BAL +130 / TEX -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -140
- BAL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.9 – 4.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +24 Elo | TEX 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 3018–26 | Road vs home | 25–1914th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 21st of 301490 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–48 | 41–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–26 | 20–27 |
| Underdog | 22–22 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders | 39–46 | 31–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–11 TEX in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.