Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Scott BlewettPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Laureano homered to left (390 feet), Mayo scored.11–3
- 7Thaiss tripled to center, Mangum scored and Walls scored.11–1
- 5Tromp homered to right center (367 feet).9–1
- 5Walls hit sacrifice fly to left, Caminero scored.9–0
- 4Díaz homered to center (427 feet), J. Lowe scored and B. Lowe scored.8–0
- 4Walls hit sacrifice fly to center, Simpson scored.5–0
- 1Simpson grounded into fielder's choice to first, Caminero scored, Mangum out at second.4–0
- 1Aranda homered to right center (467 feet), B. Lowe scored.3–0
- 1B. Lowe singled to center, J. Lowe scored, B. Lowe to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML TB -105 / BAL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 48.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +3 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +14 Elo | TB 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3019–13 | Road vs home | 18–2124th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 9th of 301529 | Elo rating | 149122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–38 | 35–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–28 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 21–21 |
| Overs–unders | 34–48 | 36–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 11–20 BAL in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 31.