Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Evan CarterBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Jacob LatzPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Gary SanchezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Haggerty grounded into fielder's choice to second, Carter scored.6–5
- 8Heim hit sacrifice fly to right, Haggerty scored.5–5
- 7O'Hearn homered to center (406 feet).4–5
- 7Urías homered to right (354 feet).4–4
- 7Sánchez homered to left center (425 feet), Laureano scored and Henderson scored.4–3
- 7A. García singled to left, Seager scored, A. García to second.4–0
- 4Osuna hit sacrifice fly to center, Carter scored.3–0
- 4Jung grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Semien scored, Carter to third.2–0
- 4Carter singled to right, Seager scored, Semien to third. Carter to second on throwing error by right fielder Laureano.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML TEX +105 / BAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 52.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −1 | TEX: Jacob Latz: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BAL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +15 Elo | BAL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 26th of 3015–25 | Road vs home | 17–1925th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301491 | Elo rating | 149122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–42 | 34–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–24 | 14–24 |
| Underdog | 19–18 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 26–53 | 34–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 8–9 BAL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.