Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Sam HaggertyBatting1-4
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Urías hit sacrifice fly to center, Laureano scored.0–6
- 6Mayo grounded out to second, Sánchez scored, Cowser to second, Urías to third.0–5
- 5Holliday homered to center (402 feet), Mayo scored and Mullins scored.0–4
- 3Holliday doubled to right, Tromp scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML TEX +115 / BAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- TEX +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −9 | TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +2 Elo | BAL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 3015–24 | Road vs home | 16–1925th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Elo rating | 148823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–41 | 33–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–24 | 13–24 |
| Underdog | 19–17 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 26–52 | 34–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 8–8 BAL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.
- Jul 21BAL 2 @ TEX 3Picked TEX 55%Hit
- Jul 20BAL 8 @ TEX 4Picked TEX 50%Miss
- Jul 19BAL 9 @ TEX 1Picked BAL 52%Hit
- Jun 30TEX 11 @ BAL 2Picked BAL 62%Miss
- Jun 29TEX 5 @ BAL 6Picked BAL 61%Hit
- Jun 28TEX 1 @ BAL 2Picked BAL 53%Hit
- Jun 27TEX 2 @ BAL 11Picked BAL 65%Hit
- Oct 10BAL 1 @ TEX 7PlayoffsPicked TEX 51%Hit