Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Eric OrzePitching2.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Gary SanchezBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mayo homered to left (412 feet), Mullins scored.8–22
- 8Mullins doubled to right, Cowser scored and Sánchez scored.8–20
- 8Henderson homered to right center (374 feet), Urías scored.8–18
- 8Holliday homered to left center (393 feet).8–16
- 7Mullins walked, Laureano scored, Sánchez to second, Cowser to third.8–15
- 7Sánchez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, O'Hearn scored, Cowser safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Caballero, Laureano to third.8–14
- 7Laureano singled to left, Henderson scored and Urías scored, O'Hearn to second.8–13
- 7Mangum singled to center, B. Lowe scored, Aranda to second.8–11
- 6Sánchez singled to right, O'Hearn scored and Cowser scored.7–11
- 6Cowser doubled to right, Urías scored, O'Hearn to third.7–9
- 5Sánchez homered to left center (382 feet), Cowser scored.7–8
- 5Cowser doubled to right, Laureano scored.7–6
- 4B. Lowe singled to left, Jansen scored, Díaz to third.7–5
- 3Laureano scored on throwing error by catcher Jansen, Sánchez safe at second on error.6–5
- 3Laureano scored on throwing error by catcher Jansen, Sánchez safe at second on error.6–5
- 2Urías singled to left, Sánchez scored and Mayo scored.6–4
- 2Mayo doubled to left, Laureano scored and Cowser scored, Sánchez to third.6–2
- 2B. Lowe homered to right center (381 feet), Jansen scored and Díaz scored.6–0
- 2Jansen singled to center, Simpson scored.3–0
- 2J. Lowe homered to right (400 feet).2–0
- 2Aranda homered to center (433 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML TB -125 / BAL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- TB: Elo 54.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.4 – 4.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +11 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +29 Elo | TB 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.128th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 3019–12 | Road vs home | 17–2125th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301534 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–37 | 34–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–27 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 20–21 |
| Overs–unders | 33–48 | 35–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 11–19 BAL in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 30.