Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting1-3
- Brandon YoungPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Heim homered to right (377 feet).7–0
- 5A. García hit sacrifice fly to right, Seager scored, Semien to third.6–0
- 5Semien singled to left, Haggerty scored, Semien to second, Seager to third.5–0
- 5Seager singled to center, Osuna scored, Haggerty to third.4–0
- 4Jung homered to right (382 feet), Carter scored.3–0
- 2Jung singled to right, Semien scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML TEX -150 / BAL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 50.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -135
- BAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 3.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +2 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +2 Elo | TEX 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 26th of 3016–25 | Road vs home | 17–2025th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 20th of 301492 | Elo rating | 148923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–42 | 34–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–24 | 14–25 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders | 27–53 | 35–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–9 BAL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.