Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting3-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 12Seager hit sacrifice fly to left, Higashioka scored.6–4
- 12Garver homered to left center (437 feet), Arozarena scored.6–3
- 12Solano grounded out to third, Raley scored, Arozarena to second.4–3
- 10Seager homered to left center (395 feet), Higashioka scored.3–3
- 10Garver singled to left, Arozarena scored, Garver to second, Solano to third.3–1
- 10Solano singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Arozarena to second, Raleigh thrown out at home.2–1
- 6Garver singled to left, Arozarena scored.1–1
- 2Jung singled to right, Carter scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -120 / TEX +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −19 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +23 Elo | SEA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.726th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–21 | Road vs home | 24–1713th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 14th of 301512 | Elo rating | 149519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–47 | 40–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–34 | 19–25 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders | 46–36 | 28–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 20–14 TEX in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 34.