Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 12Mastrobuoni singled to left, Arozarena scored, Mastrobuoni to second.7–6
- 10A. García hit sacrifice fly to right, Haggerty scored.6–6
- 10Solano singled to left, Moore scored.6–5
- 7Haggerty singled to center, Smith scored.5–5
- 6A. García singled to center, Haggerty scored and Semien scored.5–4
- 6Semien doubled to left, Smith scored, Haggerty to third.5–2
- 6Crawford scored, Polanco to second, Raleigh to third on wild pitch by Winn.5–1
- 6Crawford scored on Winn wild pitch, Polanco to second on wild pitch by Winn, Raleigh to third on wild pitch by Winn.5–1
- 4Rodríguez grounded out to shortstop, Williamson scored, Crawford to second, Young to third.4–1
- 3Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to left, Rodríguez scored.3–1
- 3Polanco grounded into fielder's choice to second, Crawford scored, Raleigh out at second, Rodríguez to third.2–1
- 1Seager homered to right center (395 feet).1–1
- 1Polanco singled to right, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML SEA -115 / TEX -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 48.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.3 – 3.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +10 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +9 Elo | TEX 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 7th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 23–1613th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 30 |
| 13th of 301512 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–46 | 39–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–33 | 19–24 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 45–35 | 27–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 19–13 TEX in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 32.