Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Semien singled to right, Osuna scored, Seager to second, Smith to third.2–3
- 6Arozarena singled to center, Raleigh scored.2–2
- 3Seager homered to right (420 feet), Smith scored.1–2
- 3Canzone homered to right (425 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -130 / TEX +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.9 – 3.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −9 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +19 Elo | SEA 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.726th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 3022–20 | Road vs home | 23–1714th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Elo rating | 149421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–46 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–33 | 19–25 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 46–35 | 28–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 20–13 TEX in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 33.