Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Gary SanchezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9B. Lowe homered to right center (395 feet).1–5
- 6Mullins hit sacrifice fly to left, Laureano scored.0–5
- 6Sánchez singled to right, O'Hearn scored, Laureano to third.0–4
- 5Urías hit sacrifice fly to center, Mullins scored.0–3
- 5Mayo singled to center, Sánchez scored, Mullins to second.0–2
- 2Cowser singled to left, Laureano scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML TB -105 / BAL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 48.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +5 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +8 Elo | TB 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–13 | Road vs home | 18–2225th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 8th of 301532 | Elo rating | 148823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–38 | 35–47 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–28 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 26–10 | 21–21 |
| Overs–unders | 35–48 | 37–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 12–20 BAL in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 32.