Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Henderson doubled to right, Holliday scored and Laureano scored.10–6
- 11Laureano doubled to left, Vázquez scored, Holliday to third.8–6
- 11Vázquez singled to center, O'Hearn scored, Vázquez to second.7–6
- 10A. García homered to left center (417 feet), Haggerty scored and Semien scored.6–6
- 10Cowser homered to right center (425 feet).6–3
- 10Henderson homered to right (403 feet), Laureano scored.5–3
- 7Helman scored on throwing error by catcher Sánchez.3–3
- 7Helman scored on throwing error by catcher Sánchez.3–3
- 6Semien homered to left center (422 feet), Seager scored.3–2
- 3Sánchez doubled to left, Henderson scored, Holliday scored and Laureano scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 50%
- ML BAL -110 / TEX -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -100
- BAL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −2 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +23 Elo | TEX 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.726th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 24th of 3017–25 | Road vs home | 24–1814th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301490 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–47 | 40–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–26 | 19–26 |
| Underdog | 21–21 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders | 37–46 | 29–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 9–10 TEX in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.