Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gary SanchezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Foscue doubled to center, Helman scored and Semien scored.2–10
- 8Seager scored on Soto wild pitch, Helman to second on wild pitch by Soto, Semien to third on wild pitch by Soto.2–8
- 8Seager scored on Soto wild pitch, Helman to second on wild pitch by Soto, Semien to third on wild pitch by Soto.2–8
- 6A. García singled to left, Seager scored and Semien scored.2–7
- 5Osuna homered to right (383 feet), A. García scored.2–5
- 4Sánchez homered to left (381 feet), Henderson scored.2–3
- 3Heim singled to left, Semien scored, A. García to second.0–3
- 3A. García singled to center, Haggerty scored and Smith scored, Semien to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 62%
- ML BAL +155 / TEX -185
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 56.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -166
- BAL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.2 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +22 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 1.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +44 Elo | TEX 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.726th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3018–25 | Road vs home | 24–1916th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 19th of 301493 | Elo rating | 149121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–47 | 40–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–26 | 19–27 |
| Underdog | 22–21 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders | 38–46 | 30–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–10 TEX in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.